The latest BNZ monthly survey results indicate an improvement in business confidence, although opinions on specific industry conditions such as printing and publishing appear mixed.
A net 27 per cent of respondents to the survey expect the economy will get better over the coming year compared with a net 62 per cent expecting a deterioration six months ago.The sharp improvement in confidence over the past month takes it to the highest level recorded since the survey started in 2005. The survey takers give no explanation for this rise, instead offering possibilities such as the Reserve Bank’s cut in interest rates, the falling exchange rate, and even an end to the wet weather.
The survey warns, however, against premature optimism, citing the deterioration in overseas economic conditions. Even so, it makes mention of the pending pre-election tax cuts (the first tax cuts a new generation of kiwi workers will experience), an increase in exporter’s confidence as our dollar falls, and the possibility of a new government as factors that affect business confidence.
Some views specific to printing included the presence of tighter margins and need for quicker turnaround in digital printing, but with a more encouraging enquiry level; industrial label printing volumes 10-15 per cent down; and cost increases coming from all directions. Publisher’s confidence looks down on last year as the sector slows, especially in business from the USA.
The survey takers expect the National Bank survey, due out in three weeks, to exhibit a similar jump in sentiment.
