Despite admitting a penchant for pessimistic forecasts, Nick Tuffley, ASB chief economist, told a members of the New Zealand Sign and Display Association (NZSDA) this morning that they should prepare for better opportunities and eventually for improved economic conditions, although the rest of the year would still present challenges.
Tuffley said that although the economy will contract during 2009 with a weak housing market, consumer spending down, and exports under pressure, not everything would happen at once. He said, “It’s not going to hit us all in one go, but things will change over the course of the year. Hopefully, we’ll be out of the recession toward the end of the year.”
He commented on the official cash rate, but warned about the dangers of making predictions. He said, “It’s pretty hard to predict what the Reserve Bank is going to do, though it looks likely it will cut down to two and a half per cent from three per cent.”
New Zealand’s dependence on exports and overseas conditions came in for some scrutiny. Tuffley said, “We’re not going to get a sustainable recovery here unless our export markets pick up.” He also gave advice to the NZSDA members in relation to action they could take to improve their bottom line in the recession. He said, “Watch out for opportunities. For example offer, or take advantage of prompt payment discounts to free up cash flow. This gives you negotiating power. Also take advantage of the current low interest rates perhaps by fixing debt for longer terms.”
Sponsored by Jenrite, Halifax Vogel Group and Tintpro, the breakfast meeting in Auckland hosted 40 people. Joe Hulsdouw, ITO rep for NZSDA said, “We see these meetings as a good way to get things started for the year. Most of the members know each other so there’s a lot of good conversations going on. We asked ASB here because we wanted to give our members something they could use.”
The NZSDA has two more breakfast meetings scheduled in Auckland. The next, one on April 8, will feature marketing
